The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data.

We study the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 shock on credit card use in 2020. Local case incidence had a strong negative effect on credit card spending in the early months of the pandemic, which diminished over time. This time-varying pattern was driven by the fear of the virus, rather than government support programs, consistent with the "pandemic fatigue" of consumers. Local pandemic severity also had a strong effect on credit card repayments. These spending and repayment effects offset each other, resulting in no effect on credit card borrowing, consistent with credit-smoothing behavior. The local stringency of nonpharmaceutical interventions also had a negative effect on spending and repayments, albeit smaller in magnitude. We conclude that the pandemic itself was a more important driver of changes in credit card use than the public health policy response.

COVID-19 as a stress test: Assessing the bank regulatory framework

The broad economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic poses the first major test of the bank regulatory reforms put in place after the Global Financial Crisis. Our study assesses the U.S. regulatory framework, with an emphasis on capital and liquidity requirements. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, banks were well capitalized and held ample liquid assets, which partly reflects enhanced requirements. The overall robust capital and liquidity levels resulted in a resilient banking system, which maintained lending and market making through the early stages of the pandemic. Trading activity was a source of strength for banks, reflecting in part a prudent regulatory approach. That said, leverage requirements are associated with more repo position netting by banks, with potential implications for market making.

Do loan subsidies boost the real activity of small firms?

We investigate the effects of subsidized loans on the real activity of small firms. Despite the lack of theoretical consensus, subsidized loans have been considered or used in many countries after the global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 crisis to alleviate the external financing constraints and stimulate the real activity of small firms. We provide empirical evidence on this policy tool by studying the impact of a large-scale subsidized loan program implemented in Hungary in 2013. Utilizing comprehensive credit registry and firm microdata, we find that subsidized loans were not only highly effective at promoting investment and job creation, but they also enhanced the productive efficiency of firms over time. Meanwhile, there was significant heterogeneity both in the benefits from and access to subsidized loans. While firms with better bank relationships received more subsidized loans, firms with lower net working capital and more severe credit constraints responded more strongly to them, which raises allocation considerations.